Moderator:

Jeremiah Owyang, Director of Corporate Media Strategy at Podtech.net.

Speakers:

1. Sean Ness, Co-Founder at STIRR.net and Business Development Manager at Institute for the Future
2. Dmitriy Kruglyak, CEO & Community Steward, Trusted.MD (watch out – site has some zany fly-out and roll-over action!)
3. Harry McCracken, Vice President/Editor in Chief at PC WORLD

Each speaker was asked to present on two topics:

1. Top 10 predictions for Web 2.0 in the next year.
2. Top 10 predictions for Web 2.0 in the next five to ten years.

Part One of this series presented speaker, Sean Ness’ predictions.

Next up was Dmitriy Kruglyak. Here’s what he had to say about the future of Web 2.0:

1. Web 2.0 becomes a dirty word.
2. “Cool” makes way for “profitable.”
3. Blurring of the lines between media and business applications.
4. Provides solutions to real industry-specific problems.
5. Web 2.0 meets enterprise sales force and ROI metrics.
6. Search for a model to reward social media contributors.
7. A major Web 2.0 player implodes over trust or privacy issues.
8. Category fragmentation finds it’s limits.
9. Push for interoperability of identities and user profiles (again, OpenID)
10. Most users still won’t care about the underlying technology.

And because he doesn’t believe long range predictions are possible, given the quality and quantity of unknown factors, Dmitriy only offered 5 long range predictions for the state of Web 2.0 (which he prefers to call “social networking”) over the next five to ten years:

1. Mobile devices will be the key.
2. Linux will become a viable choice as a desktop operating system.
3. Limits on long tail business models will be well tested over this period.
4. Social media integrates into the fabric of Fortune 500 businesses.
5. A new platform technology that doesn’t exist today will become ubiquitous.

In the next post I’ll cover the presentation of Harry McCracken, Vice President/Editor in Chief at PC WORLD.

Moderator:

Jeremiah Owyang, Director of Corporate Media Strategy at Podtech.net.

Speakers:

1. Sean Ness, Co-Founder at STIRR.net and Business Development Manager at Institute for the Future
2. Dmitriy Kruglyak, CEO & Community Steward, Trusted.MD (watch out – site has some zany fly-out and roll-over action!)
3. Harry McCracken, Vice President/Editor in Chief at PC WORLD

Each speaker was asked to present on two topics:

1. Top 10 predictions for Web 2.0 in the next year.
2. Top 10 predictions for Web 2.0 in the next five to ten years.

The first to speak was Sean Ness. He stressed that his predictions were his own personal opinions and weren’t necessarily derived from his work at Institute for the Future.

Here are his Top Ten predictions for Web 2.0 in the next year:

10. Focus on WAP (cellphones) and forget the $100 laptop. The number of people who use lap tops is virtually insignificant to the number of people who use cell phones globally.

9. “Reputation” will grow in importance.

8. OpenID – Web 2.0 or social networking sites all require user names and passwords. The need for a mechanism for logging into all sites with a single username/password will be fulfilled.

7. Twitter and other SMS (Short Message Service) applications used with cell phones will grow in popularity.

6. Mobile “walled gardens” (non-compatibility of cellular systems) persist.

5. Red Herring Magazine dies (it’s too slow). Immediatness of news from the Internets wins out.

4. The internet will crash.

3. Second Life (having a pretend life on the Internet through social networking sites) will die.

2. A scandal will be propelled by Web 2.0.

1. Apple iPhone will flop.

And now Sean Ness’ predictions for Web 2.o over the next 5 to 10 years.

10. The end of cyberspace. It will just meld into everyday life as another layer.

9. Looking for a career? Data mining will be the growth industry, so study math and physics so you can write the algorithms of the future. Learning some Mandarin wouldn’t hurt either.

8. RFID (radio frequency identification) will make tracking physical objects so much easier.

7. Ambient displays will be everywhere.

6. Broadband will be everywhere, like water and electricity are now.

5. Microsensors will be everywhere.

4. Rise of proactive and context-aware computing.

3. Sense-making (making sense of data) replaces sensing of data.

2. Open mobile ecosystems. No more worrying about cell phone signal unless you are in a cave.

1. Simulation literacy replaces computer literacy. Example: Dayjet.

Tomorrow: Dmitriy Kruglyak, CEO & Community Steward, Trusted.MD